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MUMBAI: Zee TV‘s new fiction launch Ram Milaaye Jodi is likely to average about 2.8 TVR in its first week, i.e., Sep 20-23, according to a Ormax Media‘s predictive model based on their awareness tracking product Showbuzz.
Showbuzz tracks awareness of new programs across six markets. Data over the last 18 months has been used to create a predictive model for fiction shows. The model predicts the opening week reach of the launches, which can then be used to arrive at indicative TVR, assuming a certain level of content.
Elaborates Shailesh Kapoor, CEO, Ormax Media: "The model takes into account the marketing buzz created by the show, the performance of the slot, competitive scenario and overall channel performance. We have been using it to predict the opening reach of fiction shows for the last six months, and the error margins have been less than 15% in most cases."
The model predicts reach, and while converting that to TVR, it assumes a typical time spent number. Great content can push this number up over the week, and the show can open higher. Hence, Ram Milaaye Jodi opening week average TVR could be in the 2.8-3.2 range depending on the content, according to Kapoor.
Two other fiction launches on the same day - Gunaahon Ka Devtaa and Baba Aisa Varo Dhoondho - on Imagine are predicted to average around 1.0-1.2 TVR in their first week.
