Mumbai: Ahead of the high-stake elections to five states, being seen as the semifinal before the 2024 grand finale, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News-CVoter has revealed which way the votes could sway in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana. The elections will take place in Chhattisgarh in two phases on 7 November and 17 November, while Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana will have single-phase polling on 7 November, 17 November, 23 November, and 30 November, respectively. The counting of votes will take place on 3 December.
According to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, it looks like Rajasthan is coming back to the BJP after five years, not deviating from the revolving door mechanism followed in the state since 1993. The BJP is projected to win 127-137 seats in the 200-seat assembly. In terms of votes percentage, the BJP is projected to get 46.7 per cent votes, against Congress’ 42%.
Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, is likely to see a close contest between the ruling BJP and the Congress, with the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll giving the latter more seats but no clear majority. The Congress could win 113 to 125 seats, while the ruling BJP could get 104-116 seats. The magic number in the 230-seat assembly is 116. In terms of vote percentage, the BJP is marginally high at 44.7% against INC’s 44.6%.
In Chhattisgarh, where the ruling Congress is facing an anti-incumbency, the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll gives the party an edge, though the seat projection shows its tally down since the last elections and the BJP breathing down its neck. The Congress is projected to win 45-51 seats, down from 68 in 2018. The BJP could win 39-45 seats, according to the opinion poll.
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Telangana, where the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) has been in power for 10 years, could spring a surprise as the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll shows a direct and close fight between the ruling BRS and the Congress, which could also mean a hung assembly. The Congress is projected to win 48 to 60 seats in the 119-seat assembly, more than BRS’ 43-55. The majority mark is 60.
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A hung assembly is predicted for Mizoram too where the ruling MNF is projected to win 13 to 17 seats, as against the INC’s 10-14. The majority mark in the 40-member assembly is 21.
Methodology:
This opinion poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters.
Time frame: September 1 to October 8
Sample size
Rajasthan: 30044
Madhya Pradesh: 38343
Chhattisgarh: 7652
Telangana: 11928
Mizoram: 1758
LS Seats Covered: Rajasthan 25, MP 29, Chhattisgarh 11, Telangana 17, Mizoram 1
VS Seats Covered: Rajasthan 200, MP 230, Chhattisgarh 90, Telangana 119, Mizoram 40
Margin of Error: +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Confidence Level: 95%
